Post Protest Update

Things have quieted down just a bit here since the march following Mubarak's vacating of the Egyptian presidency. However, each day has seen a protest of some sort break out, and yesterday's got some attention when people were beaten and shocked by plain-clothed policemen. Tahrir Square right now is filled with huge tents set up for the government to conduct a 10-day 'arts and crafts' exhibition; in reality Saleh's throwing a party for his tribesmen and supporters and keeping Tahrir occupied so that anti-government protesters can't use it.

The army and national police are everywhere right now; we have about 15 living downstairs of our dorm now. I've made friends with pretty much all of them and know most by name, so if anything happens at least the local semblance of stability will be on my side. I figured if anything big does happen, no anti-government protesters are going to know about my interactions with the police, and they aren't the ones with guns anyway.

Right now, I honestly don't see an Egyptian-style revolution happening here. I think the best (worst) they can hope for as far as anti-government activism is concerned would be an all-out civil war. There is certainly a large faction of anti-government people, but equally enough people here are cognizant of the differences between their country and Egypt, mainly the plethora of guns, and recognize how bad it could get. I think that very real possibility, as much as anything, is what's keeping people from really going after the regime. It really is very Mubarak-esque in that President Saleh favors a small elite around him and swiftly uses his supporters to quash dissidents, but he also appears to be much more politically and socially savvy. Mubarak never really had an air about him; he was a straight-faced military general and didn't try to hide out. Saleh, on the other hand, seems well versed at the smile-and-kiss-babies side of politics, and people here seem rather fooled by him. Testament to this is the fact that two days ago, my roommate and I were walking through the big party at Tahrir when some government supporters yelled at us and told us to come eat with them. Apparently, Saleh has been using cooked chicken to bribe loyalty; I must admit, he has a good chef because the chicken was tasty. I guess feeding thousands of men who could otherwise take up arms against you is an effective tactic.

Anyways, all of us at the college are just going to classes and kinda waiting to see what happens next. I could see it remaining 'stable' for a long time, or I could see one person doing something heavy-handed and spark an all-out war. This country really does sit on that kind of fault line, and seemingly only the fresh memory of recent wars is what keeps that from happening.