Yemen Swaying

There have been a lot of events the past 4 days. On Friday, the opposition had it's largest Sana'a protest to date, with a crowd reported to have peaked around 70,000 after mid-day prayer.

The crowd was amazing. Upon arrival, riot police ushered us away to stand on a sidewalk, for no apparent reason other than to appear to be in control. They then asked if we were students or journalists, I asked them which was better, at which point they laughed and said we could walk into the protest. So, we traversed a roughly 50 yard section of a street, at the end of which was the first line of protestors' own security. It was a bit intimidating walking up to what was thousands of people, but when we got there I asked if they were just security. They said yes and acted very friendly so I knew we were okay.

Once inside the protest, people seemed a bit more inclined to voice their concerns. Normally, they just ask us why we're in the country, but this time they were quicker to assume we were journalists, and took the opportunity to tell us their opinions. I never get tired of talking with people, but after 10 minutes there are easily 30 people in a halo around us which is a bit unnerving, considering the definite presence of undercover police there. I did note, however, that there seemed to be considerably less police presence than normal. The opposition are getting very good at security, and also more assertive, so I'm assuming they're actively turning back whomever they please.

I asked people in the crowd what the long-term plan was, drawing on the fact that they should use the large number as momentum for their movement. They said that this Friday they plan on actually marching, rather than staying put, if numbers permit. In my opinion, and I'm not quite sided with anyone yet, they should become more active, sooner rather than later. They are gaining the initiative and should use a blitzkrieg strategy; don't let up until their goal is quickly and effectively realized.

In comparison to Egypt and Tunisia, Yemen is a different beast altogether. Facing oil and water shortages, massive unemployment, secessionist movements an al-Qaida presence, a very tribal society, low level of education, and an almost non-existent middle class, there are many factors that need to be considered.

What can't really be disputed by neutrals is that the current government does not use resources to the maximum advantage of the people. Part of them are naturally used to appease the tribes and ensure civil war doesn't break out, something that is in the not-too-distant past. However, there are many claims that Ali Abdullah Saleh uses money to enrich his and his family's fortune in a very Mubarak- and Qaddafi-esque fashion. That being said, the threat of society being plunged into civil war as a result of anti-government protests is very real. While change could definitely be used, no one can say with any measure of certainty what costs that will require. That can be said for all revolutions, but Yemen stands in stark contrast to a completely-unified Egyptian society who, with seemingly one voice, was calling for the ousting of the president. Not all Yemenis necessarily want the current government to go, afraid of what the post-mortem may be. Furthermore, many seem convinced Saleh is a very capable leader of the country and has its best interests in mind.

All of the above being said, I am in no way an expert of the country, but I do feel like the past 3 weeks have given me an insight into its complexities.

The past 24 hours have seen important developments take place as well. Last night, it was announced that many Parliament leaders were threatening to resign. Since then, the country's two largest tribes are reported to have turned against Saleh, many religious clerics are stating that it is a duty for Yemenis to protest against the regime, and as of 3 hours ago Saleh announced that he will form a national unity government in 24 hours. The other side of that coin is that the JMP, Yemen's largest anti-government party, said it will reject this and will not send members to be part of the new coalition. Saleh's attempts to reconcile, and the JMP's rejection, are a contradiction to previous claims that the current government remains unaffected by recent events. On the contrary, it appears they are making last-ditch efforts to appease the masses before the movement reaches a point of no return. Whether that is an exaggeration remains to be seen in the coming days, but few can deny the movement has had an effect.