Yemen In The Balance

It's approx 0000 right now and news just hit twitter that two more students have been killed at Sana'a University. I'm texting a Yemeni friend who's there right now, and it's surreal to me that this is all going on. Gaddafi just gave his babbling speech about 3 hours ago, and the entire Middle East is in a state of flux. Many people, during the past few days, have switched their opinions on the possibility of a revolution in Yemen from being possible to highly likely. In the same time period, rumors of tribesmen coming from the north to reinforce the protestors have been rife.

Walking through Tahrir today, the atmosphere is incredibly tense. Gone is the festive mood, filled with dancing and 50's era Arabic music. People now seem to be very serious and on edge. Maybe this country will collectively realize the absolute destruction that will befall it if civil war breaks out, but at this point that looks against most odds.

It's easy in times like these to wax lyrical about the wave of change sweeping through the area, and/or dramatize events, such is the media's folly. Yet it is also undeniable the shifting mood going throughout not just the capital but all other major cities as well. Reports from Aden and Taiz reveal a marked lack of police and security presence, with the now-familiar stories of looters becoming increasingly common.

At a protest two nights ago, it was apparent that the organizers of the protest movement are trying to dig in and become more entrenched. Professional signs had been made, permanent living quarters set up, and the general look of determined defiance was widespread.

It's possible that something will happen to avert major crisis; indeed, there are many factors that could keep the protestors from realizing their goal. They must keep cohesion, have absolutely the same goals, and face what is surely going to be a very violent backlash from the government and affiliated thugs. People here say that Yemen isn't Egypt or Tunisia, but only a week ago the same was said of Libya. It only takes a spark to light a fire.

For those concerned about my immediate safety, I live in indisputably the safest part of the country. We are within 500 yards of Tahrir Square, Parliament, and the Ministry of Judges. Police presence here is high, and they all are sympathetic to us being here. By the time any violence makes it this far, Yemen will be occupying the front page of Al-Jazeera, and I'll most likely be either in an embassy or on a plane. All of us here have a lot of Yemeni contacts who report to us breaking developments way before they hit twitter or any other news outlet. I have never felt anywhere near threatened, even when secret police told us two nights ago that 'we should leave, there will be trouble in an hour.' He was right, and we were gone way before the confrontations started. We are all watching the situation here in expectation that it may tip over the brink and be pitched into another civil war. If and when that happens, we'll be long gone, so no one reading this needs to worry.