Farewell

I leave in an hour, for better or worse. I know it's crazy to say, but I sincerely want to stay.

Everyone expected today to be interesting, simply for the fact it's Friday and stuff always goes down on Fridays. I didn't expect, however, attack helicopters to be buzzing our area only a few hundred feet off the ground, tires to be burnt and thus the protest to be located only about a mile from our apartment, or to hear every gunshot in a violent revelry that to date has killed approximately 35 and wounded an estimated 200 others. As of 2 hours ago, a state of emergency for the capital has been declared, street traffic is drastically down, and almost no businesses are open. Yemen, as I've said before, has a very schizophrenic nature; one day, it really does seem on the precipice of total anarchy, other days it is quite calm and uneventful. What Sana'anis will wake up to tomorrow is anyone's guess, but this really does have the feel, right now, of a country about to explode in a very violent manner. There are rumors circulating right now of a planned march on meidan tahrir (Liberation Square), and if this happens, the number of resulting dead and injured will dwarf the present number. Angers are becoming more and more inflamed, and people are running out excuses why not attack. As their friends and family have been shot and/or beaten, the threat of personal harm becomes less and less deterrent. How this bears out is unknown, yet Yemenis have a very violent history that is sure to resurface at some point; indeed, it already has, just not quite to the level that is possible.

I have been here 6 weeks, and today seems like the day that it has all been building up to. No one can no longer ignore the protesters and say they are just a noisy few. When the government imposes a state of emergency and begins debating a curfew, things have changed and pressures have been felt. The last report is that the student protesters have responded that the state of emergency is unconstitutional and will not be obeyed. They are most definitely cognizant of the path on which it will put the country, one of no return. One side has to give; both have bent but not broken. The hammer is beginning to meet the anvil and the true metal of the protesters and their convictions will be tested. How supported they become by the general populace will surely be the tipping point, according to most objective locals. What cannot be said for certainty is just to what lengths Saleh will go to preserve his grasp on power. Whether he is Qaddafi II is unknown, but what is known is the methods at which he forged his way to the top of Yemeni politics, and intimidation and violence definitely were among them. Whether age has mellowed him, or if he becomes desperate to see out his years as de facto dictator will be discovered in the coming days and weeks. As more violence is wrought upon protesters, attention will be increasingly focused on Yemen by Al-Jazeera. In my opinion, as someone who has spent 6 weeks here, be that many or few, I'm not so doubtful of the prospects of a successful protest movement anymore. As stated earlier, how the populace responds and who they back will most likely be the deciding factor. Secondly, how loyal the army is to Saleh and how many attacks they are willing to carry out will also be a crucial element in this struggle. But killing 35 people will certainly enrage quite a few honest Yemenis who are genuinely against violence. How numerous and vociferous they are will be interesting to watch, impossible to guess, but very influential.