Standing By

Like Yemeni societal makeup, there are many faces to this demonstration movement. Some days, it appears that protesters have all the momentum, and other days it seems as if events are stalling out. Today, thus far, falls under the latter category.

It has been announced/rumored/speculated that the collective opposition political parties, the JMP, have reached an agreement with Saleh wherein he will step down by 2012. Within the JMP, and among the non-affiliated student movement, this has been disputed as both fact and sufficient. Like previous tactics of his, it still remains to be seen if this latest maneuver will take enough wind out of the opposition's sails and give Saleh more breathing room.

It appears recently that a lack of cohesion among the opposition in regards to an eventual post-Saleh Yemen is becoming a retardant to their efforts. Some groups among the protesters merely want government reform and fair election in the coming years; others are asking for the immediate abdication of Saleh from his responsibilities. This lack of consensus has already caused fissures to emerge among protesters, thus it is incumbent upon them to stitch together a common short-term plan and resume their grievances under one voice.

The previous estimation, that of the threat posed by a divided opposition, is contrary to how I felt just a few days ago. Walking through Tahrir, I was hit with the idea that there isn't much more that Saleh could do to quell things, save using Qaddafi-style brutality. Daily, there are mid- to upper-age tribesmen sitting around either eating chicken or chewing qat, both of which are doled out free-of-charge from the government. Their loyalty is being bought, apparently more out of necessity than gratitude for any genuine support they may have. In comparison, all of the protesters at the University come of their own volition financed by their own back pockets. These different pictures of the movements gave me the idea that the victory is there for the opposition. By victory, I only mean the ousting of Saleh. Whatever government comes afterward will be a battle, be it military or political, in and of itself.

Today is supposed to be another Friday 'Day of Rage.' Thus far, nothing remarkable has been done by either side, giving the feeling that the government is beginning to see the limits of the opposition movement. As long as they don't march or don't become too large, then their threat to the government will not cause too much consternation. Like last Tuesday, it is necessary that the protesters begin marching and generally become a thorn for the Saleh regime, or risk stalling.