Yemen the Schizophrenic

After rather violent and tense clashes between security forces and protesters the past week, the recent few days have been very peaceful and without incident. It is this tendency for the protest movement to operate in swings and roundabouts that makes it so difficult for any foreigner to get an accurate grasp of the situation. Police presence in the capital has been raised, more people are carrying sticks, yet not since 3 days has anything of note taken place. Perhaps last Friday was, in fact, the Day of No Return, yet many people are standing by and wondering what is to come next. Reports of even more tribesmen coming from surrounding provinces are still rife, and it has been rumored that their presence sparked last week's clashes. How the next few days will play out are anyone's guess, but if this country has taught me anything, it is to never be lulled into the idea that the movement is over. It has always been at exactly that point in which numbers have increased and tension has escalated. At the same time, it cannot be expected for both sides to continue bending without either breaking, so surely things will come to a quite violent head or simply stall out. What can be expected, however, is for a solution to take quite a bit of time yet.

Many foreigners have left and are preparing to leave. There certainly is a heightened sense of anxiety amongst the expats here, many of whom previously thought an escalation that would precipitate their evacuation impossible. The recent evacuation order/suggestion from the British Embassy can be seen as a catalyst for this, and many friends and friends of friends are talking seriously of leaving.

Yemen is different from Egypt, for instance, in the fact that there is a marked presence of guns. Egypt certainly became quite violent during the apex of revolutionary fervor, yet tribal warfare or street-level fire fights were never feared. In contrast, it cannot be ruled out that something could happen to drastically change the situation here, and a scene where guns are kept in houses is changed to the Yemen of old, where AK-47s were the equivalent of a man's purse in terms of people carrying them, becomes the norm again. No one here wants to risk sticking around to see if that situation is enacted, as unlikely as it currently seems. No one expected there to be 200,000 protesters at the university even as recently as 2 weeks ago, yet that has happened. Where this stops and how is very much in doubt, and Yemen isn't the type of country one wants to be stuck in for a prolonged period of time without a clear exit strategy. Because of this threat, more than any current situation, many foreigners are leaving. Ominous warning signs like the government departing 4 of only 8 foreign journalists, perhaps in preparation of a coming crackdown, do not assuage such fears.

What is certain right now is Yemen is changing, for better or worse. Whatever happens will be protracted and not necessarily remarkably violent, although that potential remains. As Libya remains war-torn and Bahrain brings in Saudi troops, Yemen keeps chugging along as it has done since roughly the middle of February. The best strategy from a U.S. standpoint is not to interfere and simply let Yemenis decide what they want. Hopefully that will remain the course of action for the foreseeable future.